Kerry pulls ahead of Bush in Florida - internals

As Michael mentioned earlier, Kerry has pulled ahead of Bush in Florida. According to Quinnipiac's Polling Institute, "Democratic challenger John Kerry leads President George W. Bush 47 – 41 percent among Florida voters, with 4 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. With Nader out of the race, Sen. Kerry leads President Bush 49 – 42 percent.

Bush and Kerry were locked in a 43 – 43 percent dead heat, with 5 percent for Nader, in a June 29 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University."

You can review the full poll here.

Looking at the "internals" of the poll, here are some of the trends that pop out. Bush's job approval dropped 2 points to 44%, disapproval is up to 54%. Here's where it gets interesting. If you look at independent voters in a Bush/Kerry one on one match up, right now they are breaking for Kerry 51% to Bush's 34%. If you bring Nader into the mix, independent voters go Kerry 46%, Bush 32% and 10% to Nader. For all of you out there who think that Nader can't cost Kerry the election, get over it, he can. Why else do you think that the Republican Citizens for a Sound Economy is helping Nader get on the ballot?

There is also some interesting commentary on Florida's voters' confidence in the new polling machines. "Only 21 percent of voters are “very confident” in the new touch screen voting machines. Sixteen percent of voters plan to cast absentee ballots, with 43 percent of this group using a paper ballot because they distrust the voting system."