HRC's analysis (HRC, for your straight-but-not-narrow type, is the top gay rights lobbying group in DC) is spot on. This is EXACTLY what's going on.
The pro-gay Senators caught the anti-gay Republicans (plus Zell Miller) by surprise by saying "sure, you want a vote, we'll give you a vote." Why did the good guys offer a vote? Because apparently there are so FEW Senators willing to vote for the amendment that it would totally embarrass the homophobes once the final tally was in. So the phobes are instead forcing a procedural vote called "invoking cloture." All this really means is that the Senate votes to stop a filibuster on the bill - the thing is, no one is filibustering.
So why would the Republicans force such a vote to block a filibuster that isn't even happening? Because the Republicans know that:
1) Every anti-gay Senator will vote for cloture, i.e., to stop a filibuster.
2) Even some pro-gay Senators who are voting AGAINST the amendment would vote FOR cloture, i.e., they'd vote AGAINST a filibuster.
Why? Because some Senators just don't like filibusters, even if they plan to vote against the legislation itself. This means that the Republicans can inflate their vote count - they can claim, falsely, that every Senator who voted for cloture (i.e., who voted to STOP a filibuster) was actually VOTING FOR THE AMENDMENT. This is of course an outright lie, but it's the best the homophobes can do.
One final point: The phobes are actually hoping that they don't get enough votes on cloture so they can claim, again falsely, that the Democrats are filibustering the Gay Bashing Amendment and thus stopping the people from debating this issue - when in fact, the Dems were ready to have a vote today.
It's all very messed up - brought to you by your friendly neighborhood Republican noise machine. They lie to you for your own good.
From HRC:
THIS JUST IN: Senate Republicans Back-Out on Vote on Federal Marriage Amendment
The Senate Republican leadership turned down an offer from the Democrats for a vote on the substance of the Federal Marriage Amendment and instead filed for cloture on the amendment. In a stunning reversal of events, the Republican leadership decided that an up or down vote on the President?s proposal would highlight the deep divisions that exist within the Republican party over this issue and backed off of their push for a demonstration of support.
Since Judiciary Committee Chairman Hatch spent most of his time on the floor talking about Senator Kerry and his position against the amendment, the political motivation of this effort was ever more transparent today. Since it is now obvious that a significant majority of the Senate agrees with Senator Kerry?s position on the issue, the Senate leadership now seems stuck with a credibility problem.
How can they have argued for months that the people wanted a vote on the issue when critics berated them for wasting the Senate?s time and then when the Democrats make just such an offer, they reject it?
This turnaround is not likely to sit well with conservative constituents. Don?t be too surprised if the Republican leadership changes its strategy yet again over the next two days. But as of now, the vote on cloture is expected to take place on Wednesday, July 14 at 12pm.
