Reagan's death - political impact?

Well, by now you've all heard. Most of political Washington is wondering, though not admitting it, what impact Reagan's death will have on the election. While I'll be writing more on Reagan over the coming days, here are a few initial thoughts:

1. Bush might get a slight bump out of Reagan's death if the public senses he's handling himself in a "presidential" way. Making good speeches, looking appropriately presidential standing side-by-side with all the ex-presidents. It will be interesting to see how Kerry reacts. My suspicion is that he'll, wisely, shut up.

2. We're still 5 months before the election - by the time the election occurs, any "bump" Bush gets will be gone.

3. Reagan's death obliterates any news bump Bush would have gotten out of Sunday's 60th anniversary of the Normandy invasion. Bush went to France to get a nice little presidential photo op with the allies and on the beaches, at the cemetery, etc. Now, he'll get some coverage, but the news tomorrow will be Reagan, Reagan, Reagan.

4. It's not at all clear how the Republicans soon-to-be-unleashes pro-Reagan orgasm will affect Bush and the election. It won't take folks long to realize what a great president looks (looked) like, and Bush won't compare well at all (think of the beginning of the administration when they were afraid to put Powell or Cheney out in the public eye, lest it show people how bad Bush really was in comparison). You can squabble about whether Reagan was "great," but I mean it in the sense that he was a powerful president, a powerful communicator, and a powerful force to be reckoned with. Bush is none of the above.

Sure, the Republicans will use - and I mean that word in the crassest sense possible - Reagan's death for every political advantage they can squeeze out of it. But in the end, while it might help get a few more buildings named after the man (maybe we can name the quagmire in Iraq after him?), I'm not convinced any of that benefits Bush. And actually, if the Republicans even attempt to use Reagan's death to gain favor in the election, hopefully the Dems will turn that around on them the same way the Republicans used Wellstone's funeral to pummel the Dems (of course, they're good at pummeling, our boys suck).

More to come on this analysis.

JOHN