Fascinating analysis by the Washington Monthly about how Kerry might rout Bush, assuming he doesn't screw up. My favorite line in the article? "Bush: the new Carter." No offense to Jimmy Carter, but I want that button :-)
"2004 could be a decisive victory for Kerry. The reason to think so is historical. Elections that feature a sitting president tend to be referendums on the incumbent--and in recent elections, the incumbent has either won or lost by large electoral margins. If you look at key indicators beyond the neck-and-neck support for the two candidates in the polls--such as high turnout in the early Democratic primaries and the likelihood of a high turnout in November--it seems improbable that Bush will win big. More likely, it's going to be Kerry in a rout. "
